Choice and leverage remain strongest in the London area. Across Waterloo Region, Hamilton, Burlington and the GTA, lower annual prices provide context, but tighter supply makes neighbourhood-level preparation important.
ONTARIO HOME MARKET
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Original, concise market notes based on authoritative housing and economic sources. Reviewed daily and updated when meaningful information becomes available.
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August results confirm that Southern Ontario is moving at different speeds. Inventory tightened in the GTA and across Cornerstone's markets, while London and St. Thomas recorded a new supply high. Benchmark prices were generally stable month to month but remained below last year in the communities reviewed.
THE EVIDENCE
GTA sales declined 2.1% annually while new listings fell 14.1%. Across Cornerstone's markets, sales reached a decade low and total inventory declined 8.3% year over year, although local benchmarks moved only modestly from July. London and St. Thomas stood apart with 6.3 months of inventory and a 37.5% sales-to-new-listings ratio.
Reduced inventory can limit direct competition, but low sales activity shows that buyers remain selective. Pricing and presentation should be anchored to the most recent local evidence.
MADISON'S CONSIDERED TAKEAWAY
Monthly price stability does not yet signal a broad recovery. The more useful question is how supply, recent sales and buyer activity are aligning for the specific neighbourhood and property type involved.
OFFICIAL MARKET UPDATES
The latest releases,
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Last reviewed October 2, 2026
Baker District library transition establishes the next development milestones
The Guelph Public Library Board approved the transition plan for the new Central Library at 1 Baker Street. The current Main Library is scheduled to close February 1, 2027, and the new library is targeted to open in April 2027. The City says construction of the Baker District residential towers could begin as early as 2027, with the public squares expected to be fully completed alongside the towers in 2030. Madison’s perspective: the plan provides clearer sequencing for this downtown redevelopment, but the residential construction date remains anticipated rather than guaranteed.
City of Guelph September 29 announcementGuelph acquires downtown library site for future housing
The City of Guelph is purchasing 100 Norfolk Street, the current main library site, to pursue future housing that will include below-market homes. The City is using $3.69 million received through Ontario’s Building Faster Fund toward the acquisition and will explore delivery options after the library moves to 1 Baker Street in 2027. Madison’s perspective: this secures a well-located downtown site for housing, but no unit count, delivery partner or construction schedule has been established.
City of Guelph September 25 announcementHamilton considers broader mid-rise residential permissions
Hamilton’s September 29 Planning Committee agenda now includes the supporting staff report for proposed zoning amendments that would extend Mid Rise Residential Zones to additional lands and make related technical changes. Written comments are accepted until noon September 28. Madison’s perspective: these remain staff recommendations, not final Council approval; property-level implications will depend on the final decision and applicable zoning.
City of Hamilton September 18 noticeAdditional dwelling-unit zoning changes proceed to public meeting
Hamilton’s September 29 Planning Committee agenda now includes the supporting staff report for proposed urban-area zoning amendments for additional dwelling units, intended to clarify interpretation and align the by-law with the Planning Act. Madison’s perspective: these remain staff recommendations; they do not establish new permissions unless the amendments are approved.
City of Hamilton September 18 noticeInnovation District application deferred for further assessment
Guelph reported that Council unanimously deferred a decision on the Blocks 1 and 2 planning application at its September 15 meeting. Further information is needed on compatibility between proposed housing and nearby industries, alongside policy, infrastructure and stormwater considerations. Madison’s perspective: this is a planning deferral, not approval or cancellation; future housing delivery remains subject to further assessment.
City of Guelph September 16 announcementNew grant award preserves affordable rentals on Herbert Street
Waterloo announced a $2.25 million acquisition grant to Thresholds Home and Supports for three existing Herbert Street buildings containing 17 rental apartments, including 14 affordable units. The City says affordability will be secured for 25 years. Madison’s perspective: this is preservation of existing rental housing, not an announcement of 17 newly built homes; possible additional units remain prospective.
City of Waterloo September 16 announcementWater allocations clear a permit-stage hurdle for planned homes
The City of Waterloo confirmed water allocation letters for 13 developments representing approximately 1,250 homes, alongside commercial and industrial space. Building permits can be issued once applicants satisfy the remaining development requirements. Madison’s perspective: this removes a servicing constraint for these projects, but does not establish construction or occupancy dates.
City of Waterloo announcementGTA inventory tightens further in August
TRREB reported 5,057 home sales in August, down 2.1% from a year earlier, while 12,075 new listings fell 14.1%. The benchmark price was 4.5% lower year over year and essentially flat from July on a seasonally adjusted basis. The figures suggest buyers still have negotiating context from lower annual prices, but less new supply may narrow choice in some neighbourhoods.
TRREB August Market WatchAugust benchmark prices show modest monthly movement
Cornerstone reported an August benchmark price of $628,300 in Kitchener-Waterloo, down 0.8% from July and 6.0% from a year earlier. Cambridge reached $666,400, up 0.7% month over month but 4.2% lower annually. The figures favour careful, property-specific comparison rather than assuming one direction across the region.
Cornerstone August Market UpdateHamilton and Burlington prices hold relatively steady month to month
Cornerstone reported an August benchmark price of $670,600 in Hamilton, down 0.5% from July and 5.0% from a year earlier. Burlington reached $875,700, up 0.2% month over month and 1.7% lower annually. Stable monthly movement does not remove the need for precise pricing, as annual comparisons remain softer and conditions vary by neighbourhood.
Cornerstone August Market UpdateLondon-area inventory reaches a new high in August
LSTAR reported 526 home sales, 1,403 new listings and 6.3 months of inventory in August. The sales-to-new-listings ratio fell to 37.5%, below the range CREA generally associates with a balanced market. Buyers have greater choice, while sellers should expect pricing, presentation and current neighbourhood comparables to carry more weight.
LSTAR August Market ReleaseCMHC finds small-scale infill is gaining ground
CMHC estimates that small-scale infill—buildings with two to eight homes and accessory dwelling units—represented nearly one in 10 Canadian housing starts in 2025. In Toronto, its share rose to 6.45% from 2.13% in 2024. Madison’s perspective: zoning reform can expand missing-middle options, but financing, fees, approvals and project economics still determine what is ultimately built.
CMHC September 22 analysisCMHC expects Ontario housing activity to remain subdued through 2026
CMHC’s mid-year outlook identifies Ontario as one of Canada’s softer housing markets, with affordability challenges, slower population growth and elevated supply continuing to weigh on sales and prices. It also expects historically weak housing construction, particularly in the condominium sector. For buyers and sellers, the outlook reinforces the value of realistic pricing, careful property selection and market-specific advice rather than relying on provincial averages alone.
CMHC Housing Market OutlookBank of Canada holds its policy rate at 2.25%
The Bank of Canada maintained its target for the overnight rate at 2.25% on September 2. It reported stronger second-quarter economic growth but said higher energy prices and new tariffs have increased inflation risks. The unchanged policy rate provides continuity for variable-rate borrowing, while individual mortgage offers will still depend on lender pricing, bond yields and personal qualifications.
Bank of CanadaAugust home sales ease as new listings rebound
CREA reported national sales down 0.7% from July and 6.9% below August 2025. New listings rose 3.3% month over month, while the national benchmark was unchanged from July and 3.0% lower annually. Madison’s perspective: national price stability is useful context, but local inventory, property type and current mortgage quotes should guide an Ontario purchase or sale.
CREA September 15 releaseCREA revises its 2026 resale housing forecast
CREA now forecasts 463,336 residential sales across Canada in 2026, a 1.4% decline from 2025. Its latest outlook anticipates a small annual price decline in Ontario, reinforcing the importance of evaluating each community, property type and price range on its own merits.
CREA Quarterly ForecastMarket information is general in nature and is not legal, financial or investment advice. Statistics and forecasts may change. Speak with the appropriate qualified professionals before making a decision.
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